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Lungu is weak, HH likely to win 2016 but watch Kabimba – Council of Foreign relations

Lungu is weak, HH likely to win 2016 but watch Kabimba – Council of Foreign relations

Many Zambians see Lungu as weak, with few prospects of winning again in 2016. He does have the advantage of controlling the levers of state power, however. If the Bemba faction continues to support him, he still has a fighting chance. His main rival during the by-election, Hichilema, is on an upward trend and has a strong chance of winning. Although his party has more than doubled its vote share over the 2011 election, questions remain about Hichilema’s suitability for the presidency; his business interests may foreshadow policies that favor his own investments rather than the general public. Hichilema is reported to have benefited from 1990s privatisation initiatives, having made $12 million in commissions and fees. Lungu and Hichilema lack a clear policy vision for the country. Kabimba, on the other hand, is supported by sectors of the Zambian intelligentsia that played a key role in the development of Sata’s pro-poor agenda. They are likely to help Kabimba develop a stronger programme. He might be the man to watch in the longer term, but a victory in 2016 is unlikely.…

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