The frailty of the PF/UPND pact
- Wednesday, November 11, 2009, 16:55
- Special Reports
- 22 comments
Sata and Hichilema will have to face each other on who leads the pact in 2011
By Hlastwayo Cele-It is not difficult to see why opposition Political Parties in Zambia remain just that ‘opposition Parties’. The ruling Party will have been in office for 20 years by the year 2011 since dislodging from power in 1991 Kaunda’s United National Independence Party (UNIP). Besides offering no plausible alternative to Government, policy wise, the opposition remains reeled in internal wrangles and squabbles.
With the next Presidential and General elections billed for 2011, less than two years from now, one would imagine that the main Opposition Party Patriotic Front (PF) led by Michael Sata will be busy consolidating the grip on its strongholds. Instead, they seem doing the very opposite. Luapula, which has been one of PF’s main strongholds, has in all intents and purposes been lost to the ruling party, the Movement for Multi Party Democracy (MMD).
Members dubbed ‘rebel mps’ for defying the Party’s President Michael Sata directive not to attend the on-going National Constitutional Commission (NCC), the constitutional making process and for which they were expelled, contesting the expulsion and then winning a court injunction against it, has caused a major rift in the Party.
This wrangle has particularly dealt a major blow to PF, essentially crippling its chances of victory in the up coming 2011 elections. The other opposition party United Party for National Development (UPND) remains a stronghold only among the Tonga speaking people of Southern Province. They too have shown signs of internal factionalism. Recently one of their pillar members was expelled for voicing dissenting views, which views are shared by others in the party.
Attempts to form alliance among the Opposition have not done enough to dispel the negative notions. The two opposition Parties, PF and UPND, have entered into a political PACT leading onto the 2011 elections.
In Lusaka and Copperbelt urban, the opposition has fared quite well and has kept an upper hand, enjoying the backing of the urban canvassing private media, the POST, popular for its critical stance against government.
Today, an average Zambian if asked what he/she anticipates in a PF/UPND led government; the answer is ever open-ended “dependent on who will eventually lead the alliance”. This hanging issue surrounding who leads the ‘PACT’ above anything else reveals the susceptibility of the alliance to failure and eventually the incapacity of the opposition to spearhead a formidable campaign.
The alliance has two candidates, Sata and HH, to choose from, to lead them in the 2011 Presidential elections. Both candidates are clearly hopeful to lead the PACT with, Sata, enjoying the greater prospect to emerge the sole candidate.
HH, the younger of the two, representing UPND has however, not counted himself out, relying on what some have termed ‘dicey grounds’ for his aspirations. Some of his Party members have openly criticized him for ‘falling to the whims’ of the politically seasoned Sata. However, HH has been quoted saying “I am my own man under no duress,” counting on deductible but presently concealed derivatives and eventualities which, he hopes, will sway the tide to his side.
Some have openly said that HH’s strategies are partly reliant on the assumption that Sata, who was last time evacuated to South Africa for medication, will eventually be unable to keep up or ‘fall out’. Whilst others have said that HH hopes to reap from the NCC recommendations restricting Presidential candidates to degree holders, which if implemented may basically exclude Sata from the upcoming Presidential elections.
Another dent on the PF/UPND alliance is the absence of defined fundamentals binding them together and as such the impression created that the ‘PACT’ is simply a marriage of convenience solely formed under the pretext to ‘kick out’ the MMD formed government. This alliance has been compared to that between the ‘Vulture and Hyena’.
In the last bye election held in Kasama (Bemba land), it is said, “The Tongas escorted the Bembas and so the Bembas will escort the Tongas in Southern Province (Tongaland)” implying that the PACT does not have tangible evidence of its claims. It is easy to see how fragile the alliance is from such statements.
Such is the frailty of the PF/UPND alliance plagued on one hand with fundamental incompatibilities and on the other, an un-saleable agenda.
The ruling Party has its share of problems, not spared from internal squabbles, but nothing compared to the kind found among the opposition, remaining more or less the same level they were at the last Presidential elections, enjoying a countrywide support.
Given decisive measures by the Party’s (MMD) hierarchy to curb the manageable dents and if they devise a clear cut campaign strategy, behind the backdrop of opposition party fragmentation, it is not difficult to see that the MMD could easily make huge inroads and thus consolidate their lead, remaining in government beyond 2011.
Editor’s note: the opinions in this article belong to the author
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This Pact must break in order for Zambia to survive.
Cele is speaking the truth, the truth is a bitter pill to swallow. What should be remembered is that to win an election votes are important, at the end of the day, every single individual counts. These people you kick out have followers too, and at the end of the day the numbers of those followers constitute a great number of the vote. In my view, let this pact be seen to tolerate divergent views,and embrace forgiveness, reduce on insults and set out your agenda in order to attain your goal. The first step is to ensure that a leader be chosen, a person the country can become familiar with, without that you will see the effect of dissappointed members in 2011 when a sole candidate is picked.
During the time of KK triballism was not a factor. With the coming of MMD regionallism, nepotism, cronysm, and triballism have suddenly become a cancer that is threatening peace of our mother Zambia. Ever since the Pact the deadly cancer has been ebbing away a very fast rate. Nobody is thinking along tribal to lines to go to plot one, the major campaign weapon for doctoring election campaigns. Sata or HH are not a factor for 2011. If they are both ambitious let somebody else with humility but credible enough lead the Pact in 2011. The two will eligible in 2021. Am sure by then MMD will have gone into oblivion
Watchdog,at least this one seems,a little bit balanced,objective though,much bias to mmd,at least am able to learn sumthing.
You are very right man,,,even though in zambia people do not seems to understand the truth, the pact will not materialise, people in zambia believe another tribe should be a president not a bemba, this close seems to be bad to mention but it is the reality. they say they have already excorted bembas..it is good for banda to continue… if sata gives way to HH as a president it will be abit okay…popularity will not work for any one opposition to win any elections in zambia. remember combination of votes for sata and HH still can not beat banda. From my own observation HH should be appointed the president of the pact, otherwise sata will not make it..HH will win easily in Lusaka, southern, western ,north western and copperbelt, partly central province, but for sata, Luapula, northen, copperbelt and lusaka.I do not think other provinces will be on board for sata…believe
As much as you want to run away from the fact, bottom line is that UPND a tonga party, has come together with PF a predominantly Bemba party. Hmmmmmmmm it doesnt get more tribal than that.
This is my suggestion, are Sata and HH willing to let that leadership of this pact go to any other person other than the two, can they rely relinquish the reigns for the sake of removing MMD….hmmmm I know the eanswer to that one already. At the end of the day, truth be told, if pacts will be entered into for the sake of removing a government, such pacts become futile when the sole objective is not achieved. Pact revisit your reasons for a union, this union will not live to see 2011, if you do not adress the leadership issue.
Going by what has been said in the artcle, we need another party. We have seen frail chances of HH/Sata taking the leadership in 2011. Zambians need to look for another alternative. There has been rumours in the past of another party. Where is it, it must be of national character.
Talks about another Political Party are retrogressive. This is how the now dreadful MMD has won elections each time, because of “hired guns” in the name of new political parties.
Talk about a person known to the Country, who knew the Late Levy Mwanawasa or the incumbent RB as Presidential candidate material?
Stop the hate, it only leads to bias!
Who would like to belong to a party that tolerated indiscipline and disorder? How would one expect such a party to govern the Country well?
Just let the PF/UPND pact pursue the vision Zambians have long urged the opposition to do.
My appeal is to all well meaning opposition political parties worth their salt to join the pact, and serve as redeemers of Zambia from the retrogressive grip of the lost MMD led government. The MMD spent its value by the time Fredrick Chiluba was leaving government.
I urge the likes of Godfrey Miyanda, Sondashi, Ngondo and other leaders in the opposition to join The Pact, better late than never.
AND by the way, remember what our friends the Bembas say, “Ako usulile e kopa noko” (the man you despise is the one who ends up marrying your mother – the consequence in Africa is that you end up calling that person “tata” (dady)).
A good idea, wrongly enetered into, with a wrong agenda, and now its downfall has begun.
Takuli eko ileya iyi pact, the only thing that will happen, Ba PF will come out stronger, the Tonga party will reduce in half hahahhahahha just wait and see, the end of UPND.
If PF is serious, get a new president, not stale presido uyu, muletasha. Find good candidate, you will have all these people including UPND and MMD MP’s joining PF…and then form government.
Pantu this union, with two heads will never stop looking tribal Bemba-tonga confederation or Northern-Southern confederation….what abt us Easterners, Western, Central,North Western, where do we fall in, we also want to be president ka!
There’re no political parties in Zambia. It’s the same people recycled over and over again! The issue about MMD over staying is not true because founder members are in opposition, the ones running it are new. They might as well just change the name!
HH is trully counting on his luck. Does he ever think that Sata can even offer him the Vice Presidents Position in a PF led Government? As soon as his eyes are opened, the better for him. Otherwise he risks another if not worse depression as suffered in 2006 when he lost.
Unfortunately, the fact is its either the pact works or the country is doomed. mark my words! the country is doomed.
If you are in zambia right now then you know what i mean when i say the country is doomed if mmd continues in power! Its PACT or never!
I would like to disagree with the author on one point where he says that PF is losing Luapula to MMD due to the Rebel MP’s. Truth is those rebel MP’s are not a factor, if bye elections where to be held today, i doubt any of them would retain there sits if they stood on MMD ticket. Even with Rebel MP’s decampaigning sata in the last elections, he still managed to win by large margins in those rebel controlled constituencies.
Very mind opening article, makes you sit and rethink what it is we trying to achieve. 1991 lesson is being brought alive, what did we get out kick Kaunda and UNIP out campaign. Strategy is what this pact, needs, vision and a greater agenda, other than being tired of MMD.
IF MMD LOSES THEN ALL THESE CAREER POLITIANS WILL OVER NITE CHANGE TO PF….THUS THE REAL ZED FOR YOU
One critical issue raised here is the need for a united opposition. A fragmented one will not achieve its goals. Another party would not be a good idea, I would suggest, new presidential candidate for the pact. Coz both a HH and Sata, have had a shot and failed. So try new blood, one who can wooo and incorporate all Zambians without tribal stench.
RB you are spot on….shouldnt there be law that says you can only jump ship somany times.
this is dataless or unresearched work pliz..remove it!!
If only allwe could debate with a bit more seriousness using this platform it can give all the good zambina a good view of whats to come…..so iurge all good country man and women back home who post and give us some insights of whats on the ground go this direction very seriously….we dont wana set up a remedy for war or terror….remeber our good country has never gone to war and we dont wana here of anything like that now,but lets not take the hungry for granted ang anger them more by joking around with their lives….some of them really depend on these politicians to breath sothink of them too….am sure each 1 of us reading emails comftabley and post whatever…we are full and relaxed and wouldnt wana start running now……so lets be carefull and serious with what we say…..goodluck Zambia and fellow zambians i miss you and am defnetly coming back home for XMAS…..