Simuntanyi reveals that fake ‘Bradford’ poll was done by Edgar Ngoma
CENTRE for Policy Dialogue (CPD) executive director Neo Simutanyi has described an opinion poll published in the Post Newspaper yesterday that Patriotic Front (PF) president Michael Sata would win Tuesday presidential elections by 55 per cent as bogus and based on street interviews.
And Simuntanyi has revealed that the lead ‘researcher ‘ of the fake poll was Edgar Ngoma. Edgar Ngoma publishes a newspaper called Weekly Angel around election times only. He made his money running a clearing agency called Angoni. He has a certificate in public relations and an honorary doctorate.
Dr Simutanyi said there was no evidence provided by some Zambian lecturers and the non-existent Canada’s Bradford University on Mr Sata’s popularity. In an interview in Lusaka yesterday, Dr Simutanyi said the poll was conducted without basic understanding of how such surveys should be done.
He said opinion polls the world over would not mention the constituencies where a candidate would win polls because they merely provide a sample of the likely outcome of elections.
Dr Simutanyi said for the first time in the history of opinion polls, there were figures for candidates and described the publishers and researchers as desperate.
He said he was aware that the lead researcher, Edgar Ngoma conducted a similar fictitious poll in 2006 and its results favoured Mr Sata but the official results showed a totally different picture. Sources yesterday revealed that Mr Ngoma had also been commissioned to conduct another opinion poll in conjunction with the People’s Pact Forum and that the results would be released in the Post newspaper before the elections.
According to the sources, the Post wants the Zambian people to reject the election results after being cheated by the Post stories. The fictitious opinion stated that Mr Sata would receive 2,750,000 votes out of 5.5 million votes but Dr Simutanyi said he had never seen an opinion poll like that before.
He said the only way someone could produce such figures was when the actual voting had been conducted and wondered whether there had been an election to produce such results. Dr Simutanyi said he had been conducting opinion polls since 2006 and that all his findings were reflected in the final results.
He wondered why the Post newspaper was wasting its time giving attention to Mr Ngoma who did not understand research. The Post newspaper yesterday published results of an opinion that was conducted in June to August 2011.
However, Dr Simutanyi said that was enough proof that the researchers were totally ignorant because opinion poll findings for that period could not apply a month afterwards because people’s opinions change with time.
He said people sponsoring Mr Ngoma were wasting their resources especially that he always came up with fake and misleading results. He challenged the researchers to state the methodology they used for the opinion poll.
Dr Simutanyi said he did not have any links with President Rupiah Banda for Mr Sata’s cadres and allies to insinuate that CPD was funded by the MMD to conduct an opinion poll.
He also said reports that he was fired by University of Zambia were a fabrication because he resigned as a lecturer on his own and that he intended to take legal action after the elections.
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86 Responses to Simuntanyi reveals that fake ‘Bradford’ poll was done by Edgar Ngoma
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I and I want to ask Neo what happened to opinion polls…..guess they remain opinion polls.lol!
bob marleyz - September 24, 2011
04:01
This man has done to oppinion polls before, in 2006 and 2008, before we start calling him names, lets look at what he predicted and what actually came out of the polls, The PF leaders knows that Neo’s oppinions polls are near to the truth. ASK HIM.
Voice Of Reason - September 15, 2011
12:36
Pot calling the kettle black!
chanda chimba the thug - September 15, 2011
06:06
my own Opinion pole is that I’m voting for RB. Though not a perfectionist, he is an above average performer with a mature character. Join me on 22nd for RB Victory Bash.
KaneleBull - September 15, 2011
06:05
Zambians, i really thot u were more civilised to be able to aticulate why a man who says “dont kubeba” cant win a Presidential Election!The answer is simple-Dont Kubeba simply means we dont have anything sensible to say in our campaign but pls vote for us and not the other party!
PONYOPONYO FRONT-PF - September 14, 2011
22:39
fight on fellas with your opinions!! UPND ON DA MOVE!VIVA RCT…bena bazalila next week oooh!
DR OBATALA voting HH in 6days..reloaded- - September 14, 2011
20:53
Neo Simutanyi is just a fucked up idiot, he knows nothng about politics apart from his shamerful life of being used by politicians,he is a jack ass.
mer - September 14, 2011
20:35
The fact that a non-existent foreign University as an attempt to legitimise the poll, and in the process make fools out of the rest of us is sufficient reason for me to rubbish it. And to think that it was published by The Post! Journalism has surely gone to the dogs.
Ganizani - September 14, 2011
20:07
MR SIMUTANYI,THE POLLS YOU CONDUCTED BELONG TO RB AND MMD ,AND HAS GOT NOITHING TO DO WITH THE RESUILT OF THE ELECTION THOSE ARE THE WORST POLLS A MAN OF YOUR CLASS CAN GIVE. LOOK WHAT A BRIBE CAN DO YOU HAVE LOST YOUR DIGNITY ,YOU CRADIBELITY NOT 4GETING HONESTY PF WILL ONLY LOSE IN BRADFORD NOT IN ZAMBIA POWER TO THE PEOPLE
Peace 2 all sharom - September 14, 2011
19:07
My opinion poll tips towards chipimo getting 37percent,followed by hh at 33 percent ,rb
at 20 and sata at 9percent
znn - September 14, 2011
18:39
Mwebantu an opinion pall can be carried out by any one thats why its is called opinion.An opinion is a belief or judgment that rests on grounds insufficient to produce complete certainty. 2. a personal view, attitude, or appraisal. 3. the formal expression of a professional judgment or an opinion is a subjective belief, and is the result of emotion or interpretation of facts, so even me l can produce one Sata 42%, RB 28%, HH 18% and the rest 12% as simple as this!!!!!!!! So ba simutanyi tekweba ati ur intelligent or clever instead ur making a fool of yo self
Mwana Kupala - September 14, 2011
18:19
Dora Siliya’s Ex-Husband Hits Back….”I Divorced Her Because of Bed-Wetting, Adulterly, Lack of Respect, Drunkenness”
0digg
Dora – right in the picture
MMD Spokesperson, Dora Siliya’s ex-husband Chisha Folotiya has hit back over remarks Dora made that he was lazy in bed.
Mr Folotiya, a Lusaka businessman and former Mondo Music CEO revealed and claimed in a press conference held in Lusaka that it is him who divorced Siliya and not the other way round.
He cited the reasons for their divorce as rampant bed-wetting, adultery, lack of respect and her bad beer drinking habits (Drunkenness) she had.
Mr Folotiya further disclosed that he is happily married to a beautiful wife and has lovely kids.
The MMD spokesperson Dora Siliya on thursday last week revealed to Petauke residents that she divorced her ex-husband because he was not man enough and that he was lazy in bed.
And Siliya also urged men in Petauke Central Constituency to admire her beauty and soft bums and not each others beards because the laws of Zambia prohibit homosexuality.
Dora Siliya’s continued urge for men to admire her bums on Friday last week inspired Petauke’s Chisonso villagers who asked to touch her breasts as well.
Siliya continued her onslaught on PF leader Micheal Sata, this time describing him as a disrespectful old man who did not come from human beings.
Chisha Folotiya and Dora once had a splash Porsche wedding in Lusaka in 2002 but their marriage barely lasted.
Chisha Folotiya was rumored to be going out with one of the Shatel girls at that time in 2002 – Barbara and Saboi – and that was rumored to be one of the making reason their marriage break up.
Mary Zimba - September 14, 2011
18:10
Simutanyi u ar just a RB’s kandile..how come 2day u start criticizn aza opinion polls,,Why cant u jst stik 2 yo opinions 4 yo felaz,,that day mmembe tod the Nation that u are nt even a Doctor..its been 48hrs without yo Respons to that..!!
U ar jst a bootlicker !
Lick Dora’s !!
ONE DORA - September 14, 2011
17:56
I thought simutayi is educated, now he is proving otherwise. How can he say an opinion poll was based on information from the street. Opinions are held by people and you can find people on the street. he who pays call the shorts
fitebitebi - September 14, 2011
17:30
Fred Mmembe has commissioned an opinion poll with someone who clearly does not understand the rules of probability.PF will never form government and that why they the Post so desperate to throw away all the relevant chunks out of the opinion. Let us be honest the “donchi kubeba” concept has failed to gather momentum. Viva RB!!
Sata will not rule - September 14, 2011
16:49
Micheal Sata is finished by his own allies the Post. They are headed for a landslide loss. Firstly, he supported gays and lesbians, then he insulted the Catholic Bishops, now a fake opinion poll. Just give up njoka iwe……….Chwe Chwe Chwe chwe RB Nafuti nafuti
Bowinakale - September 14, 2011
16:27
pa kuboko, pa kwanja,palyanza. zambia forward. UPND team is working whn others ar fighting ovr th opinion poll. cme 20 septmbr. registrd votrs wil cast freely for UPND wile noise makers wil be waitn for results they did not participate in. its not my fault that u did not register.
chombela nganda mwansa - September 14, 2011
15:43
These opinion polls are all fake, and paid for. MMD and PF please, try something else.
Tembo - September 14, 2011
15:22
Any comments from Mr chishimba the man behind the ‘bradford poll’?
Fasa Engine - September 14, 2011
15:01
This DR. Simutanyi is just being used by finished MMD. We have only six days remaining in which to see the real opinion poll, otherwise, the political ground is very fertile for Sata and PF. 20th sep 2011 pa bwatofye. Don’t Kubeba. MMD Kuya bebele, 20years you have wasted for zambian peple is enough and we are just tired of thieves, thugs.
Minister Without portfolio - September 14, 2011
14:50
Dr Neo Simutannyi is one of the most credible and disciplined scholars zambia has. he does not depend on politcs to defend his findings, but on prctical knowledge.
dr simutanyi doesnt work with politicians, but with other similar stakeholders as his work.
he is never bought.because of this, he has fallen out with people who wanted to use him for party purposes, among them, MMD, UPND, ADD. he freely gives advise to these parties, but some of his advise is bitter and they avoid him.
he has nothing to gain by keeping money away from his pocket to maintain his integrity.
those who want to be true to their life, take dr simutanyi’s advise with a sense of great seriousness.
when he said PF will win the MMD said bad things about him, but on the ground, they started working, and they seem to have regained their lead.
in the next six days, PF,UPND, ADD, must all apply neo’s predictions and find answers, good and strong answers.
villager - September 14, 2011
14:39
av done research b4, scientific not thes soweto research methods, i agree wth neo, an opinion poll wudnt give actual figures like that. Hw did they get the actual figure each wu get wen their sample size was 1/6 of the voter’s register? U dont just make projections by doubling or trippling figures. Even siulapwa s fake poll was more convincing . As at nw just like in the last polls , au go wth neo’s poll
joeking - September 14, 2011
14:18
Simuntanyi is an embarrancement if i had a way i would strip him his doctrate cause he is fake , i even doubt his credibilty to conduct that so called op he should try to save himself from being used by these criminals over just few pieces of silver
limo - September 14, 2011
14:13
We dont care about opinion poll.Remember secret ballot?Dont Kubeba.Tapali ukwiba nafuti nafuti
Ba pompwe - September 14, 2011
14:04
why are you attacking Neo for saying there is no bradford University in Canada, and that the poll opinion was doctored and badly for that matter?
whey do oyu people hate the truth so much, has it bitten your ego? even so, learn to accept the truth.
Doctor Neo’s predictions always come out strong. the figures are awlasy close, for example the poll in 2006 and 2008.
some time in 2010, he predicted that PF will win elections until statstics and party conduct from PF started working against them. some of the negative contributing factors to PF’ problems are:
1. the handling of the pact.
2. the issue of homosexuality
3 the handling of the death of chiluba
4. the issue of violence as agitated by kabimba and scott.
these have affected the PF standing.
if PF continues to pretend over this, they will lose elections. they must reverse the impact of this issue.
Right now, MMD is headed for victory.
villager - September 14, 2011
14:04
@chichi###### MY FRIEND, THAT IS COPY AND PASTE FROM POST EDITORIAL OF YESTERDAY. IGNORANCE ALSO!!!!!!!!!
SILOS - September 14, 2011
13:58
@Mushala your raesoning is supported with facts and your logic of thots is far much better than most of the bloggers I have read in a long time. If people can present facts like you have done they could win alot of people to there side. Senior Cetizen presents his factors emmotionally. So, that in itself take away the real value of his facts. It is said when you are right yuo can not be radical and when you are wrong yuo can not conservative. Brovo brother.
chichi - September 14, 2011
13:49
the elections I believe will be free and fair by our zambian statndards, lets not cry foul even before we vote. If Sata is so popular he will win – we may not like it or not but the best candidate will carry the day. Forget about Neo Siamutayi, 3 months ago he favoured sata and we will not conclude that he was paid by pf so he is got the right to his opinion, even me i ve my own opinion but we will just wait for the final result come 22nd sept.
osward - September 14, 2011
13:37
Simutanyi has finally shown his hand. Why should he get bothered about this? Leave the rubbishing of polls to the political players and their supporters.
muntu - September 14, 2011
13:32
viva HHHHHHH.its like the race of Kalulu, Hippo and the turtle. Do u remember that grade 2 story folks. who won the race?. aha! kip fighting as we close in. UPND is formin govt.
chombela nganda mwansa - September 14, 2011
12:43
Is sponsoring Lifwekelo,Chifire and other MMD Vuvuzelas like u Simutanyi not a waste of Govt resources?
Zima Ndola - September 14, 2011
12:39
Dr Simutanyi,a question for you.Does it mean that you are the only ONE who can conduct an Opinion poll in Zambia and others can’t? We had questions for you Opinion Poll like.In your Analysis you said that The MMD has gained in it’s stronghold and you gave us figures that were lower that what the MMD scored in it’s strongholds.like in Eastern provinve,the MMD got 72% of Votes but what you gave us was lower than this and you said they have gained.From 2008 or ever since RB came into power we have had 7 if not 8 by-eletctions for PMs and MMD has lost the following seats to the Opposition. Chilanga,Mporokoso,mumfumbwe and solwezi central and I can predict that these seats will be for the opposition.
ku Mindolo - September 14, 2011
12:37
This is the same Ngoma who connived with a quack doctor and started injecting people with an insectcide claiming that it could cure Aids. WHO HAS FORGOTTEN THIS?
Mwenye - September 14, 2011
12:28
Post ayi taya…sole william..7 days to go..Nafuti nafuti….imwe…chalo chesu…
swales - September 14, 2011
12:18
Last week, discredited academician Neo Simutanyi sent this newspaper his opinion poll in which he made a number of astounding claims which were contradicted by his own statistics and demographic logic. It is clear that Simutanyi was trying to do the MMD a favour by telling them that they are winning.
And it would appear that he needed statistics to back him up. One of the things that Simutanyi said was that MMD is going to win because it has consolidated itself in its strongholds. What he omitted to tell our people was the base from which he began in order to make the claim that MMD had consolidated itself in its strongholds.
Even a first-year statistics student could have done a better job than Simutanyi. In the Eastern Province, Simutanyi said that his poll predicted that Rupiah was going to get 51 per cent of the vote. What he did not tell the public is the fact that in 2008, Rupiah got 75 per cent of the vote in the Eastern Province. By his own numbers, Simutanyi was saying that Rupiah had lost 24 percentage points between 2008 and now.
How can that be consolidation? Simutanyi lied and is attempting to mislead the public. In the Western Province, Simutanyi stated that his poll showed that MMD would get 41 per cent. In 2008, Rupiah garnered 72 per cent of the vote in Western Province. This means that Rupiah was losing 31 percentage points in Western Province. Again, Simutanyi calls this consolidation.
What nonsense is this? When you compare Simutanyi’s so-called poll with the results of 2008, MMD also loses eight percentage points in North Western Province and seven percentage points on the Copperbelt.
By Simutanyi’s own poll, MMD does not gain in any of its strongholds. Why is Simutanyi telling lies? Simutanyi then goes into what we might call demographic nonsense because he claims that the Patriotic Front loses percentage points in all its strongholds but gains in all the provinces where it was previously very weak. Simutanyi wants us to believe that the Patriotic Front loses popularity in Lusaka, Copperbelt, Northern and Luapula, but gains huge points in North Western, Southern, Eastern and Central provinces. What is the point of all this nonsense? Why are we discussing it?
It is clear that these so-called polls are designed to condition the minds of our people to accept electoral fraud. The same question can be raised about Kayukwa’s lies about Universal Print Group. Why is he lying? It is not far-fetched to say that his bosses have a vested interest in Universal Print Group. They know that if the corruption of Universal Print Group were exposed, then it might become very difficult for them to carry out their schemes.
The same question can be asked about why Rupiah defended Universal Print Group. He needs them. But let Rupiah and those that are cheating him know that they can cheat some of our people sometimes but they cannot cheat all our people all the time.
It is said that those who don’t learn from history are bound to repeat the mistakes of history. Rupiah should learn from Laurent Gbagbo.
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MUSHALA - September 14, 2011
12:05
ITS TRUE RUBEN MWILA,THE POST POLL HAVE BACK FIRED ON PF.THE POST POLL HAS PUSHED RB UP BY 2% FROM 13.09.2011 AND HH BY 5% FROM THE UNDECIDED VOTERS INTERVIEWED HERE IN THE SOUTH OF ZAMBIA.THE ADVISERS OF SATA HAVE MADE YET ANOTHER MISTAKE.PEOPLE LIKE 2BOBO NCHINGA OR BOB CYCLE AS HE IS NOW KNOWN AMONG THE PEOPLE HERE WILL BE ASHAMED OF THEMSELVES AFTER 20th SEPT,2011 UNLESS THEY HAVE ANOTHER PLAN OF COMING INTO POWER.OTHERWISE SHIKULU HAS BEEN CHEATED AGAIN BY HIS OWN IMAGE BUILDERS.
HAMBILWI-ABANA - September 14, 2011
11:59